Expert’s opinion survey differ from survey of Sales forces

The different between expert’s opinion and survey of sales forces can be explained as follows:

- A variant of the opinion poll and survey method is said to be expert’s opinion survey. The participants are supplied the responses to previous questions from others in the group by a coordinator or leader of same sort. The leader provides each expert with the responses of the others including their reasons.

In survey of sales forces, information is collected from firm’s sales-representatives or salesmen about their estimates of sales of its product in future.

- Outside experts such as consultant firms, investment analysts, who are professionally trained for the purpose of the forecasting demand, may be asked to estimate demand.

In survey of sales forces, information regarding likely sales is obtained from those who are closest to the market and have an initiate insight to the market.

- Each expert is told about the prediction of other experts and asked in the light of the other’s views whether he/she should revise his prediction about future demand. The experts are again shown each other’s revised forecasts and asked to reconsider their forecasts future till a consensus is reached or until referring the opinion of others.

In survey of sales forces, the responses of the various salesmen or representatives are then aggregated to arrive at total demand forecast for the product.

- Predictions of the demand by experts are not always based on any hard data but they can provide useful information about demand for the product.

Sales forecasts provided by sales representatives are biased either upward or downward. However, as a result of experience, some corrective factors are applied to sales estimates furnished by salesmen.

The merits and limitations of expert’s opinion and survey of sales forces can be explained as below:

Merits of Expert’s Opinion

1. It facilitates the maintenance of anonymity of the respondent’s identity throughout the course. This enables the respondent to be candid and forth right in his view. 
2. It renders if possible to pose the problem to the experts at one time and have their response.

Limitations of Expert’s Opinion

1. Predictions for demand by experts should always be based on some hard data, but they are not based on any hard data. 
2. It is very costly or otherwise not possible to conduct complete enumeration. Outside experts may charge huge fees for giving their opinion.
3. The experts who consider themselves experts may not like to be influenced by the predictions of others on a panel of experts. As a result, there may not be any revision in subsequent rounds of seeking their opinion about other’s forecasts.

Merits of Survey of Sales Forces

1. It is easy and cheap to do. 
2. It has further advantage of increasing the motivation of salesmen to achieve the self-selected target for which they had made a forecast.

Limitations of Survey of Sales Forces

1. Sales representatives may not provide correct forecast. Some sales representatives would like to make too optimistic sales forecast. 
2. Some salesmen would like to make too pessimistic sales forecast so that they get higher payments for exceeding the targets based on their sales predictions.
3. Sales forecasts provided by sales representatives are biased forecast either upward or downward.

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Non-statistical methods used to forecast the demand for satellite TV signal decoder

Demand forecasting means predicting demand for a product. The information regarding future demand is essential for planning and scheduling production, purchase of raw materials, acquisition of finance and advertising. In order of accuracy as well as good forecasting, we can use various methods such as survey and statistical methods.

Generally in short term forecasting, we can use survey method and statistical method can be used for long-term forecasting.

As mention above in title, satellite TV signal decoder is a short-term program. To know the peoples intention about the program, we can use survey method. Under survey method, there are various methods, such as:

1. Consumer Survey Method: Direct interview method, complete enumeration method, sample survey method.
2. Opinion Poll Method: Experts opinion method, Delphi method, Market Studies and experiments. In case of forecasting demand for satellite TV signal decoder, we can use sample survey method.

Under this method, only a few potential consumers and users are selected from the relevant market through a sampling method are surveyed. This method of survey may be direct interview or method questionnaire to these sample consumers. On the basis of the information obtained that probable demand may be estimated through the following formula,

DP = HR / HS (H. AD)

Where, DP = Probable demand forecast

H = Census number of households from the relevant market

HS = Number of households for the product

AD = Average expected consumption by the reporting households

This method is simpler, less costly and less time consuming than the comprehensive survey method. The households who plan their future purchases generally use this method to estimate short-term demand from business firms, government departments and agencies, and so on. Business firms, government departments, and such other organization budget their expenditure at least for one year in advance. It is therefore possible for them to supply a fairly reliable estimate of their future purchases. Even the households making annual or periodic budget of their expenditure can provide reliable information about their purchases.

Sample survey method is widely used to forecast demand. However, this method has some limitations similar to those of complete enumeration or exhaustive survey method. The forecast therefore should not attribute reliability to the forecast more than warranted. Besides, sample survey method can be used to verify the demand forecast made by using quantitative or statistical methods. Some authors suggest that this method for forecasting rather than to replace it, this method can be gainfully used where market area is localized.

Sample survey method can be of greater use in forecasting where quantification of variables (e.g. feelings, opinion, expectations etc.) is not possible and where consumer’s behavior is subject to frequent changes. Satellite TV signal decoder forecasting is also a short and non-durable program. In such a case, sample survey method is only the appropriate non-statistical method.

  Some Related Links:      

• Expert’s opinion survey differ from survey of Sales forces

• Steps of Demand Forecasting

• Different methods of demand forecasting

• Demand Forecasting

• Purpose of Forecasting Demand in a Business Firm

• Demand Forecasting for the New Products

• Process of demand forecasting by the time series analysis