Showing posts with label Inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Inflation. Show all posts

Burden of Public Debt, Sacrifice Imposed on the Taxpayers

The burden of public debt refers to the sacrifice imposed on the taxpayers with the increase in taxation to serve the debt, and the adverse effects on the economy as a whole (like reduction in capacity to consume, reduction in production of high quality goods and services by private sector, increase in price level, increase in inequality of income, inter-generation transfer of burden, outflow of national assets in case of foreign debt, etc.)

The burden is interpreted as financial or direct and real or indirect. Increase in tax level transfers some income of people to government, and the loss in income of people is the financial or direct burden. The other adverse effects on the economy, as mentioned above, are the real or indirect burden.

Related Topic:

However the burden of public debt is determined by the facts as whether it is productive or unproductive / dead-weight debt, whether is internal or external, and the economic situation. Public debt for unproductive purposes is definitely a burden. But that for productive purposes may not be a burden if it is utilized in an effective way. Even the debt for productive purposes will have a burden in the form of increase in price level at least the gestation period. It is said that the internal debt will have no net financial burden to the economy as there will be just transfer on income within the economy. But, the external debt will be a burden as the debt repayment transfers national income to foreign creditors. The debt will not be a burden in a situation of recession or depression and even in an inflationary situation (if it is raised out of the income that is most likely to be used in more consumption). And also, in case of developing countries, the debt used for development purposes will not be a burden; rather it helps in mobilizing financial resources to exploit the un-utilized natural and human resources.

Burden of public debt is also interpreted with its effect as increasing inequality in income. This is why, mostly the holders of government securities are the middle and upper income class in the society and revenue for debt servicing is contributed by all groups in the developed countries and relatively more by the low income groups in the underdeveloped countries. 

The burden is also in the form of inflation. Borrowing from most of the sources, other than the individuals and private organizations, leads to increase in money supply and monetary income of people causing increase in demand. Along with this the government also increases demand. The combined effect will increase the total demand in the economy. But to improve the supply situation it takes certain time. So at least until the gestation period there will be inflation in the economy. 

There are controversial opinions regarding whether it will be a burden to the present generation or the future. On view argues that since the present generation will be deprived of the availability of goods and services as resources will be diverted towards government expenses, the present generation will bear the real burden. Whereas the future generation will bear the financial burden with increase in taxes for debt servicing.


You may also like this:

Incomes Policy, Need and Working of Incomes Policy

The concept of ‘Incomes Policy’ has gained new issue in recent years, especially in developed countries of the west, as a means to fight ‘demand pull’ and ‘cost push’ inflation. The central objective of this policy is to reconcile economic growth and price stability. The price stability is to be ensured by restraining increase in wages and other incomes from outstripping the growth of real national product.

Incomes policy seeks to concentrate on curbing the private consumption expenditure in an effort to reduce the pressure of ‘aggregate demand’ on ‘aggregate supplies’. This concentration on restraining the private consumer expenditure is justified on the ground that out of the important constituents of aggregate effective demand, (private consumption expenditure; government consumption expenditure; investment expenditure in private and public sectors; and the excess of exports of goods and services over their imports in the market) this item is the largest – accounting for about two-thirds to three-fourths in most countries. (In fact, variations from country to country are wide and this is only a rough approximation). In other words, incomes policy implies deliberate intervention by the authorities in gross money incomes from rising excessively in relation to the growth of national output in real terms.

Need and Working of Incomes Policy


The necessity for an appropriate incomes policy is being increasingly felt on account of the intensification of the tendencies towards cost inflation, because the proportion of incomes and prices determined in non-competitive markets is likely to increase with increasing industrial employment, growing unionization, and collective bargaining and increasing scale of enterprises. Further, longer experience of consistently high level of aggregate demand as enunciated above may lead to encouragement of a more aggressive attitude on the part of labor and more permissive attitude on the part of the employers towards wage increases, leading to a strengthening of the bargaining position of unions.

The inducement to adopt income policy is stronger in some countries than in others, depending on the prevailing socio-economic circumstances. The inducement is more where relative price stability is needed to facilitate expansion of employment (either before or when the employment objective is met) or to improve a critical balance of payments position. Disciplinarians in the field of international economics prefer incomes policy to set right chronic balance of payments to a policy of devaluation or deflation.

However, when it comes to guidelines for other types of incomes like profit, rent and interest, its policy prescription is less clear. While the general objective, as discussed above, has been laid down in many developed countries like Netherlands, Sweden, France, Norway, U.K. and U.S.A., no operational incomes policy has been adopted in any country except Netherlands. In U.K., first attempt at incomes policy was made during the Second World War and met with a little success due to accompanying circumstances (exceptional in nature) like subsidies, price controls, rationing, compulsory savings etc., all played an important part in holding down prices. There was a good deal of suppressed inflation in the economy but towards the end of 1950, wage restraint began to break down and incomes policy was held in abeyance in U.K. during the fifties. The labor government which took office in 1964 presented a policy on productivity, prices and incomes as an integral part of its plan for promoting economic growth but later on due to bad economic conditions, balance of payments difficulties and rising prices and incomes ran into difficulty. The U.S. abandoned wage price controls in 1974. European incomes policy, however, did not fare badly, though it proved to be a costly experiment and in the long run not only inflation continued but it also led to distortions in the economy giving rise to more severe inflations in U.K., U.S.A. and Japan from 1974 onward. In U.K., where a beginning was made, many practical implications came to light during the course of its working. One of these is that in a period of excessive overall demand an incomes policy though useful can play a role only subordinate to fiscal, monetary and other economic policies to fight cost inflation.

         You may also like to read:        

Goal / Role of monetary policy in an underdeveloped economy

The role of monetary policy may be explained as follows:

i) Economic Development

In developing countries, the monetary policy should aim at promoting economic development. The monetary policy can play a vital role in acceleration to economic development. It influences the supply and uses of credit, controlling inflation and maintaining equilibrium balance of payment.

ii) Development of Banking and Financial Institutions

One of the main functions of central bank or primary aim of monetary policy is to establish more banks and financial institutions. Underdeveloped countries lack these facilities. These facilities will help in increasing banking habit, mobilizing voluntary savings of the people, channelizing them into productive uses and raising the rate of capital formation.

iii) Debt Management

In the developing economy, debt management is one of the main functions of monetary policy. The tools under the aims of debt management are deciding proper timing and issuing of government bonds, stabilizing their prices and minimizing the cost of servicing the public debt. These tools collect the means and sources of economic development. Monetary policy helps it in goal specific way.

iv) Control Inflation

Monetary policy is an effective measure to control inflation. Increase in government expenditure on developmental schemes increase aggregate demand but aggregate supply of consumer’s goods does not increase in the same proportion. This increases the price level. The monetary policy controls inflationary tendencies by increasing saving, checking expansion of credit by banking system and discouraging deficit financing by the government.

v) Correct the adverse Balance of Payment

Monetary policy in the form of interest rate policy plays as important role in correcting the balance of payments deficit. In the developing countries like Nepal, there is serious balance of payment difficulties to fulfill the planned targets of development. To develop infrastructure such as power, irrigation, transport, etc. and directly productive activities like iron, steel, chemicals, electrical, fertilizers, etc., developing countries have to import capital equipment, machinery, raw materials, spares and components thereby raising their imports.

The exports are almost stagnant. They are high priced due to inflation. As results, an imbalance is created between imports and exports which lead to imbalance in the balance of payments. Monetary policy can help in decreasing the gap between balance of payments deficit through high rate of interest. The high rate of interest attracts the inflow of the foreign investment and help in bridging the balance of payment gap.

vi) Reduction of Economic Inequality

In an underdeveloped economy, there is wide disparity of income and wealth and absence of an integrated interest rate structure. Monetary policy can play a significant role to maintain equal distribution of income and wealth and a suitable rate of interest rate. The central bank should take effective steps that benefit the poor and to integrate the interest rate structure of the economy. For this, low rate of interest should be fixed for the poor and small farmers, and entrepreneurs and subsidy may be given for them. A suitable interest rate structure encourages savings and investment in economy and discourages unproductive loans and speculative.

vii) Adjusting Demand and Supply of Money

Monetary policy can be of great use in these economies for effecting necessary adjustment between the demand for and supply of money. The demand for money is likely to go up on account of increased transactions and gradual disappearance of non-monetized sector combined with increased demand for money on account of precautionary and speculative motives. The use of money and credit for speculative purposes has to be controlled by the monetary authorities through suitable monetary policy and by the government through direct physical controls, falling which inflation is likely to appear, which may stifle growth instead of helping it.

viii) Maintain Economic Growth Rate

Monetary policy can also help growth. The sectoral impacts of such policy in a developing economy are worth nothing. Monetary expansion can be used at least in theory, to change the terms of trade against the agricultural sector, which tends to benefit from increased production in the secondary or tertiary sectors. If the prices of industrial goods can be raised through inflation without affecting the prices of food-stuffs and raw materials, it may be difficult to follow.

Similarly, monetary policy should try to maintain in the economy at most suitable interest rate structure. At present, the interest structure is amendable only in the upward direction and very little in the downward direction, but with the help of monetary policy the structure becomes somewhat manageable in the downward direction also. For a large public debt that has to be raised in poor economies, rates of interest must be kept low.

          You may also like to read:         

How monetary policy helps to control inflation? | What are the objectives/goals of fiscal policy of underdeveloped countries?

What are the objectives/goals of fiscal policy of underdeveloped countries?

Fiscal policy plays a dynamic role in developing countries. The monetary policy alone is ineffective due to the existence of underdeveloped money and capital markets, fiscal policy can be used as an important adjustment to monetary policy in accelerating the rate of capital formation.

The importance / significance of fiscal policy in development countries are below:

i) Increase in rate of capital formation

One of the main objectives of fiscal policy is to increase the rate of capital formation. Capital formation is an important determinant of economic development. Saving and investment are the two components of capital formation. In the economy as saving flow is the formal investment in the productive sector, the rate of capital formation increases. Economic development takes place rapidly when the rate of capital formation increases. The fiscal policy should be formulated in such a manner as to increase the rate of investment both in public and private sectors. This needs large amount of financial resources which can be obtained by raising the increasing saving ratio and curtailing conspicuous consumption and unproductive investment. Fiscal policy helps in the formation of capital in two ways:
  1. Fiscal policy expands investment in private and public sector through planning wise development. Specially, government invests in the economic sector. It helps to provide necessary means to invest in such sectors. It collects necessary amount for the progress of the physical capital formation and human capital formation.
  2. Fiscal policy encourages unproductive investment to mobilize it in productive sector. This is done by making the tax free, low tax rate, subsidy, reduction policies etc. It helps in reducing unnecessary consumption and will increase capital formation rate, from unproductive sector to productive sector through the mobilization of resources.

ii) Resource mobilization

Resources are limited in developing countries. The aim of economic development can be obtained only if the limited resources are utilized optimally. The available resources should be mobilized rationally and effectively. Fiscal policy plays a central role for resource mobilization in the economy. The fiscal policy is more effective means for resource allocation and mobilization than any other means. In this context, according to Okun and Richardson, “The main task of fiscal policy in underdeveloped countries is to make available adequate saving for financing economic development from excessive low production and prepare the environment for increasing significantly the private investment activities.”
  1. Fiscal policy provides tax facilities in order to increase saving and investment. Government may increase the tax rate and give priority for the public sector for investment.
  2. Fiscal policy can be the means for mobilizing the investment and resources of agriculture to the productive sector such as trade, industry, tourism etc. then after the available saving from agriculture should be maintained in the form of tax to the economic development.

iii) Promotion in employment opportunity

Fiscal policy plays a crucial role to create conditions of full employment and provide with higher living standards. Fiscal policy therefore should aim at increasing employment opportunities and reducing unemployment. For this, government expenditure on economic and social overheads should be incurred to generate employment. Government should increase productive efficiency in the economy. Government can encourage labor based small industries by reducing tax or by providing subsidies. Likewise, government can increase local community development programs involving more labor and requiring less capital per head. Government should give greater emphasis to the family planning performance to control the high growth of population which is the major reason of population growth. For this reasons, above mentioned fiscal measures can help to increase employment.

iv) Effective role in counteracting inflation

In the initial stage of economic development, creeping inflation is not bad but higher inflation is dangerous in the economy. Inflation creates uncertainties which are the barrier for investment and economic growth. That is why fiscal policy can play an effective role in counteracting inflation. In this context, according to Henry C. Murphy, fiscal policy is an effective in counteracting inflation in developing countries as it is in industrial countries. The following are the effective roles in counteracting inflation:
  1. Curtail government expenditure without changing tax rate: This increases the saving of government budget and reduces the purchasing power of public.
  2. Curtail government expenditure with the increase in tax rate: This helps to increase the rate of saving and reduce the purchasing power of public. In this, aggregate demand will be decreased which help in controlling inflation.
  3. Fixed in government expenditure with the increase in tax rate: Sometimes, government expenditure cannot be controlled. In such situation, inflation can be controlled by increasing tax rates with the help of reducing purchasing of public.
  4. Curtail in government and reduce tax rates in equality: If the government expenditure and tax rate is unequal, inequality is reduced, the income between the beneficiaries of government expenditure and the class of tax payers will be redistributed. This process reduces the net propensity to consume and reduces more in the national income than government expenditure. Through this, the multiplier value of balanced budget will be greater than the unity and the effects occur against inflation.
  5. Increase in government debt: Government may increase public debt and pull public saving which reduce purchasing and demand. This helps in controlling inflation.

v) Reduction of income inequality and wealth distribution

In underdeveloped countries, inequality of income and wealth distribution widely spread. This inequality is socially injustice and economically helpful. Until the problem of such inequalities exists in the economy. There will be hardly development of economy and social welfare. That’s why inequality of income exists and wealth distribution should be reduced. For this, fiscal policy plays very important role.
  1. Implementation of progressive tax system: To achieve this, government has to impose high tax rate to the rich people and low tax rate or free tax to the poor people.
  2. Levy tax on the basis of class of consumption pattern: Government should levy taxes at high rates on the luxurious goods and services, and on the other hand there should be lower tax rates on the goods and services that are consumed by poor people.
  3. Increase facilities to the poor class: Basic facilities should be increased to make easier life for poor class than the rich class.
  4. Expenditure on human capital for poor people: Government should spend a lot of money on physical capital and human capital. Such expenditure provides job opportunities for the poor people by developing human capital on them.

vi) Correct adverse balance of payment

Fiscal policy helps to correct adverse balance of payment. This policy discourages the import and encourages the exports of the economy. For this, government should reduce the taxes of imports and increase the tax of exports goods, subsidies and other facilities.

vii) Economic stability

One of the most serious problems of developing countries is economic instability. Generally, they are affected by inflationary tendencies. Fiscal policy adopts the various methods to maintain economic stability. Contra-cyclical fiscal policy should be adopted to offset the effects of fluctuations in world market prices thereby to promote economic stability in the economy. During the inflation, government can increase direct tax and reduce the government expenses to control the inflation. On the other hand, the government can increase public expenditure and decrease tax rate to control the deflation. During depression period, government should make deficit budget and surplus budget policy will be made in the period of prosperity. From this, stability will be maintained.

viii) Control inflation

The objective of fiscal policy should be to protect the economy of an underdeveloped country from the demon of inflation. Inflation can prove ruinous to an underdeveloped economy. It can undermine the very process of economic growth. As such, the fiscal policy of an underdeveloped country should be designed in such a manner as to curb inflationary forces arising during the process of economic growth.

Besides these, the objective of fiscal policy should be to eliminate, as far as possible, sectoral imbalances arising in the economy from time to time. Though the fiscal policy as visualized above, will help to maintain price-stability in the economy as a whole by curbing inflationary forces, there may arise sectoral price fluctuations in certain sectors of the economy on account of the existence of certain bottlenecks. To ward off that possibility, fiscal policy must be attuned to correct such imbalances in time before they could inflict any damage of the economy.


        You may also like to read:        

Measures needed to control Inflation | Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy and Other Measures

There are three lines of action to check and contain an inflationary boom namely, Monetary Measures, Fiscal Measures and other Measures.

i) Monetary Policy Measures         


Following are the monetary measures, which can be used to curb inflationary pressures:

1. Increased re-discount

To curb inflation, the Central Bank generally increases the re-discount rates. An increase in the re-discount rates leads to an increase in bank rates, because there is a definite relationship between the two. An increase in bank rates tends to discourage borrowing by businessmen from banks, resulting in a fall in the intensity of inflationary pressures in the economy. An increase in interest-rates consequent upon the increase in the bank rate will make savings attractive than before and induce people to spend less on consumer goods. But the increase in re-discount rates as a weapon to check an inflationary boom has its limitations tool. Firstly, if the bank rates do not rise with the rise in re-discount rates, there will be no decline in business borrowings, and hence, the inflationary pressures will continue, even though the re-discount rates have been raised. Secondly, the effectiveness of higher re-discount rates as an anti-inflationary weapon shall be considerably undermined if the commercial banks have an easy access to additional reserves.

2. Sales of government securities in the open market

Another method to check the inflationary boom is to resort to sale of government securities to the public by the central bank. As the buying public purchases and pays for those government securities, the commercial banks’ reserves with the central bank are correspondingly reduced and they are obliged to adopt a restriction credit policy in relation to business requirements. But the sale of government securities as an anti-inflationary weapon is also subject to limitations. Firstly, this policy may be rendered ineffective if the commercial banks are able to increase their reserves by selling their stocks of government securities to the central bank. Secondly, this policy may also be offset by increased borrowing from or by increased sales of treasury bills to the central banks of the commercial banks.

3. Higher reserve requirements

An increase in reserve requirements of the member banks also serves as an anti-inflationary weapon during inflation. It absorbs the excess reserves of the banking system and, thus, prevents them from forming a basis for further credit expansion. But this method is also subject to limitations. Firstly, if the commercial banks happen to have very large excess reserves, even the raising of the reserve requirements may not significantly curtail their power to create credit. Secondly, the ability of commercial banks to increase the reserves through sale of government securities may render higher reserve requirements ineffective to check credit expansion. 

4. Consumer credit control

During an inflationary boom, facilities for installment buying are reduced to the minimum to curtail excessive spending on the part of the consumers. This is done (i) by raising the minimum initial payments on specified goods, (ii) by extending the application of consumer credit control to a large number of consumer goods, and (iii) by reducing the length of the payment period, etc.

5. Higher margin requirements

It is a method of selective credit control. The central bank is its pursuance of higher levels. The central bank in its pursuance of an anti-inflationary policy may raise the margin requirements of loans to higher levels. The higher the margin requirements, the lower the amount of loan that the borrower can obtain from the bank. Thus, higher margin requirements have the effect of checking undue monetary expansion.

ii) Fiscal Policy Measures         


The major anti-inflationary fiscal measures are the following:

1. Government expenditure

To counteract increased private spending at a time of inflation, the government should, at such a time, reduce its own expenditure to the minimum extent possible to help limit the aggregate demand. As against this, it may, however, be said that it is not so easy to reduce government expenditure particularly during the war period. Secondly, any drastic cut in government expenditure to cure inflation may actually land the economy in a slump.

2. Taxation

The problem during inflation is to reduce the size of disposable income in the hands of the general public in view of the limited supply of goods and services in the market. It is, therefore, necessary to take away the excess purchasing power from the public in the form of taxes. The rates of existing taxes should be steeply increased, while new taxes should be imposed on commodities so as to leave less money supply with the public to spend.

3. Public borrowing

The object of public borrowing is to take away from the public excess purchasing power which, if left free, would surely exert an upward pressure on the price-level in view of the limited supplies of goods and services in the economy. If voluntary borrowing does not yield adequate results, it may become necessary to resort to compulsory borrowing from the public.

4. Debt management

The existing public debt should be managed in such a manner as to reduce the existing money supply and prevent further credit expansion. Anti-disciplinary debt management usually requires the repayment of bank-held debt out of a budgetary surplus. The idea is that the government securities held by commercial banks should be retired by the government out of the budgetary surplus. This would check the power of commercial banks to cash their securities and add to the reserve for the purpose of credit expansion.

5. Overvaluation

An overvaluation of domestic currency in terms of foreign currencies will also serve as an anti-inflationary measure. Firstly, it will discourage exports and thereby increase the availability of goods in the domestic market. Secondly, by encouraging imports from abroad, it will add to the domestic supply of goods in the economy. But, overvaluation as an anti-inflationary weapon suffers from several limitations.

6. A suitable income policy

At a time of inflation, the government must also adopt a suitable price-income policy. It should strictly control wages, salaries and profits to keep spending at a low level to fight inflation.

iii) Other Measures        


These measures can be used to supplement monetary and fiscal measures undertaken to contain inflationary pressures.

1, Expansion of output

Increased production is the best antidote to inflation because inflation arises partly due to inadequacy of output. But it becomes rather difficult to increase output at a time of inflation because of the full utilization of resources. It is suggested that if it is not possible to increase output as a whole, steps should be taken to increase the output of those goods which seem to be extremely sensitive to inflationary pressures by shifting productive resources from the less inflation-sensitive goods. In other words, a reallocation of productive goods, such as food, clothing, housing, etc. Steps may also be taken to increase supply of consumer goods through large-scale imports from other countries to absorb excess money supply.

2. Wage policy

During an inflationary boom, the wages have to be controlled so as to curb the inflationary pressures in the economy. Wage increases may be allowed to workers only if their productivity increases. If this principle is observed, higher wage shall not lead to higher unit costs and hence, it higher unit prices.

3. Price control and rationing

The object of control is to lay down the upper limit beyond which the price of a particular commodity would not be allowed to rise. To ensure the successful functioning of price control, two conditions will have to be satisfied. Firstly, the government should have under its control adequate stocks of the commodities concerned. Secondly, the demand for the concerned commodities should be controlled through rationing, failing which the richer sections shall be able to buy a major portion of the available stocks.


         You may also like to read:        

Effects of Inflation in the Economy | Effects on Production | Effects on Consumption | Effects on Distribution

  • Inflation has serious social and economic effects. Some economists have named it legal dacoits. It invisibly imbalance economic factors and delay the speed of economic growth. The following are the main effects of inflation.

Effects on Production


  1. Decrease in the quality of goods: The demand for goods increase due to inflation. So, any type of goods can be sold. As a result, the profit seekers lessen the quality of goods to increase the profit.
  2. Reduces saving: Due to inflation, most of the income is spent on consumption. So the saving reduces. As a result, there is less capital investment.
  3. Encourages holding and speculation: The producers start to store the necessary goods. Due to this, the goods become even scarce; the businessmen hide the goods and create artificial scarcity, for black marketing.
  4. Reduction in productivity: In the time of inflation, there is less capital formation. As a result, it is difficult to make available factors of production. It brings uncertainties in the economy, and entrepreneurs become discouraged in the production.
  5. Devaluation of money and loss in faith: People have less trust of money due to the devaluation of money and its decreasing purchasing power. Foreign investors also can return their investment due to the loss of faith.


Effects on Consumption


  1. Change in consumption pattern: In the time of inflation, the demand for quantity decrease as the price of the quantity increases. Those who have various sources of income buy luxury goods, foreign goods and goods of comfort but those who have limited source of income start to buy only essential goods. Most of the consumers start to consume artificial goods than natural ones.
  2. Debt instead of saving: In the time of inflation, the consumer surplus slowly decreases because he has to pay more than he wants to pay. If there is high inflation, he will get loan.
  3. Unequal consumption and lifestyle: In the time of inflation, the lifestyles of rich and poor will become more polarized. Those who have only limited income, is compelled to buy only the essential goods. Due to this, life becomes more difficult. But those, who have various sources of income feel opposite of that.


Effects on Distribution


  1. Fixed income groups: Government officials, pensioners and those depend on post savings are the fixed income group. In the time of inflation, general price increases, so the expenditure on living increases and the life becomes harder.
  2. Creditors and debtors: In the time of inflation, creditors are in loss and debtors are in profit because of the decrements in the purchasing power of money. As the creditor give the money having more purchasing power and get it back when it has less purchasing power. Therefore, they get in loss.
  3. Salary and wage earners’ group: This group will be in hard time as the expenditure of living increases where as wage and salary do not increase.
  4. Merchants and industrialists benefited: In the time of inflation, merchants and industrialists get sudden profit. The price of assets (stock) increase but the cost of current capital does not increase so much, so merchants and industrialists get extra profit.
  5. Effect on Balance of Payment: Inflation has negative effect on balance of payment. Indigenous goods happen to be more expensive than foreign goods. So the farmer cannot compete with foreign goods. As a result, import increase and export decrease. Thus, balance of payment becomes negative. In the long run, it creates scarcity in the foreign exchange.


          You may also like to read:          

Inflation, Cost Push Inflation | Supply Shock Inflation

Supply Shock Inflation / Cost Push Inflation


Inflation is also caused by increase in the cost of production. As a result of increase in the cost of production, the aggregate supply schedule shifts downwards to the left, indicating that a lesser quantity is supplied at the existing prices. Aggregates demand schedule remaining unchanged, any leftward shift in the aggregate supply schedule will push the prices upwards as could be seen in figure.

Cost Push Inflation

In the figure, DD is the aggregate demand schedule which remains unchanged; S1S1 is the original aggregate supply schedule which intersects DD at point K. At the full employment equilibrium point K, the level of full employment output is OY0 and the price level is OP1. With increase in the costs (may be due to rise in wage rates, higher prices or inputs, etc.), the aggregate supply schedule shifts to S2S2 intersecting the aggregate demand schedule DD at point K1. At new equilibrium point K1, the level of real output OY1 is less than the full employment output, therefore, the price level rises to OP2. A further shift in the aggregate supply schedule to S3S3 pushes the price level of OP3.

Causes of Cost Push Inflation


Cost-push inflation is generally caused by three factors.
  1. Increase in money wages: In the modern business world, trade unions have become very well-organized and have been also to secure higher wages for their members. Whenever the products are compelled to accept the demand for higher wages by the trade unions, they try to shift the burden of increasing costs on to the consumers by charging higher prices for the final goods and services. This leads to ‘wage-price-spiral’. Increase in the wage rates leads to rise in prices, the real wages of the workers decline. To neutralize this fall, still higher wages are demanded and granted, and thus inflationary spiral continues.
  2. Higher profit margins: As discussed earlier aspiration for higher profit margin sets in motion ‘profit-push inflation’. This situation is typical to a sellers’ market in which demand exceeds the supply. Pressure on demand leads to increase in prices. Taking advantages of this situation, the producers set higher profit margins, which again would push the prices upwards.
  3. Rise in the prices of basic inputs: Scarcity of strategic and basic raw materials results in an increase in their prices, and in turn, the prices of final goods and services are increased. A fall in the supply of cement, iron and steel, sugarcane, cotton, etc., would raise their costs, and finally, the prices of the finished goods will also go up. The cost-push inflation may also be caused by the scarce supply of imported raw materials and intermediate goods.
  4. Administered higher prices of inputs: The prices of inputs do not always increase due to their scarcity but may increase due to some administrative action on the part of the government. Higher administered prices of basic inputs would affect the prices of final goods and services of the concerned business units. Thus, rises in administered prices sets in motion, the cost push inflationary forces in the economy.
  5. High rate of taxes: Taxes imposed on goods and services (i.e., indirect taxes) also generate inflationary pressure in the economy. As a result of increase in indirect taxes, the prices of raw material in international market. It is also known as supply shock inflation.
  6. International reasons: Another case of supply inflation on cost-push inflation is prices of the raw material in international market. It is also known as supply shock inflation.

           You may also like to read:         

Inflation and Demand Pull Inflation | Causes of Demand Pull Inflation

Inflation is a fall in the market value or purchasing power of money. It is the opposite of deflation. It refers to a continuous increase in the aggregate price level of goods and services rather than just a one-time increase in it. In other words, inflation means rise in price level or fall in the value of money. Inflation is simply the increase in the general price level in sufficiently a long period. In
some context, the term inflation is used to refer to an increase in the money supply, although this concept is also often referred to as monetary expansion. Due to the causes of inverse relationship between general price level and value of money, inflation is continuous decrease in value or the purchasing power of money.

Inflation results from an increase in the amount of circulating currency beyond the needs of trade; an oversupply of currency is created. In the past, inflation was often due to a large influx of bullion, such as took place in Europe after the discovery of America and at the end of 19th century. In modern times, wars are the most common cause of inflation, as government borrowing, the increase in money supply, and a diminished supply of consumer goods, increase demand relative to supply and thereby cause rising price. The economists have defined inflation in many ways. Some of the definitions have been presented here.

According to Edward Shapiro, “Inflation is a persistent and appreciable rise in the general level of prices.”

 

In the words of Gardner Ackley, “Inflation is defined as a persistent and appreciable rise in the general level of prices. This clearly makes inflation a process rising prices not higher prices.”

 

In the words of Coulbourn, “Inflation is too much money charging too few goods”.

 

According to Sir RG Hawtrey, “Inflation is the issue of too much currency.”


According to Prof. Samuelson, “Inflation occurs when the general level of prices and costs is rising.”


Demand Pull Inflation


Demand pull inflation occurs when there is an excess demand over the available supplies at existing prices. Excess demand means aggregate real demand for output in excess of maximum feasible, or potential, or full employment output. Excess demand is generated by forces operating on the demand side of the commodity market.

As a result of increase in demand, the aggregate demand function shifts upwards to the right (supply function remaining constant). In this case, rise in price is caused exclusively by the increase in demand as could be seen in the figure.


In the figure, OU shows the full-employment level of real output. Beyond OU, rise in prices does not, result in increase in the real output. As the demand for real output increases from D1 to D2 and D3 to D4, the prices level also rises from P1 to P2, P3 and P4 respectively.

Causes of Demand Pull Inflation


Demand-pull inflation is caused by the following factors.

i) Excess demand

Prof. Keynes has explained the effect of excess demand on prices through his notion of ‘inflationary gap’. Inflationary gap may be defined as an excess of aggregate demand for goods over their aggregate supply measured at constant prices.

ii) Increase in money supply

Monetarists held excess increase in the quantity of money responsible for inflation. According to the quantity theory of money, at a given level of national income (potential as well as actual) the general price level (P) rises in the same proportion as increase in the quantity of money (M), the velocity of money being held constant. In a static economy, M is policy-determined; therefore, the rate of inflation also becomes policy-determined.

In a dynamic economy, the real demand for money grows over time and the national income also grows over time. Apparently, the rate of growth of real demand for money will be equal to the rate of growth of the national income. However, excess increase in the stock of money will lead to increase in prices. Excess supply of money is nothing but the excess demand for output that causes inflation.

iii) Disposable income

It refers to the income payments to factors after personal taxes have been paid. An increase in disposable income results in increased purchased power with the people. There is increasing pressure on the demand for goods and services, as a result, prices tend to rise.

iv) Increase in business outlays

During the prosperity phase of business activities, increase in business outlays or capital expansion take on a speculative character. New equipment and plans are often financed by speculative borrowings. Most of business outlay finds their way into the income stream via dividends, wages and other factor of payments. These business outlays are inflationary in character.

v) Increase in foreign demand

Increase in the export demand for domestic goods and services also lead to inflation. This is particularly true for the economies which maintain considerable inflationary pressure on domestic areas of shortages which may be a focal point of spreading inflation.

vi) Increase in government expenditure

There may be an increase in the government expenditure of government revenue. This might have been made possible through government borrowings from banks or through deficit financing, which implies an increase in the money supply.

vii) Reduction of taxation

If government reduces taxes, households are left with more disposable income in their pockets. This leads to increase consumer spending, thus increasing aggregate demand and eventually causing demand pull inflation.


         You may also like to read: