|Scanning is generally defined as acquiring information. In the context of marketing programs and plan environmental scanning involves monitoring changes and developments in the marketing environment that have potential impact on the marketing activities. It is essential for formulating plans.|
According to Richard Steers –“Environmental scanning involves monitoring changes and developments in the environment that have potential impact on the organization.”
Methods of Environmental Scanning
- Extrapolation method: These methods require information from the past to explore the future. The future is assumed to be some function of the past. There are a variety of extrapolation methods, including trend analysis, forecasting and regression analysis.
- Historical analogy: When past data cannot be effectively used to analyze an environmental trend, the trend is studied by establishing historical parallels with other trends. This method assumes that sufficient information is available from the other trend. Turing points in the progression become guideposts for predicting the behaviors of the trend being studied.
- Intuitive reasoning: This method calls for a rational intuition by the scanner. Intuitive thinking requires free thinking unconstrained by past experience and personal biases.
- Scenario building: This procedure involves constructing a time-ordered sequence of events that have a logical cause-and-effect relationship to one another. The resulting forecast is based on interrelationships among the events.
- Cross-impact matrix: When two different trends in the environment point to two conflicting futures, the trends are studied to see their potential impact on each other.
- Morphological analysis: This method is used to identify all possible ways to achieve an objective. It can be used to anticipate and to develop ideal patterns for achieving desired objectives.
- Network methods: Two types of network methods are popular: Contingency Trees and Relevance Trees.
- Contingency Tree: A contingency tree is a graphic display of logical relationships among environmental trends that focuses on branch points, at which several alternate outcomes are possible.
- Relevance tree: A relevance tree is a logical network similar to a contingency tree, but assigning degrees of importance to various environmental trends with reference an outcome.
- Missing line approach: This approach combines morphological analysis and the network method. Many developments and innovations that appear promising may be hindered because something is missing. Under such circumstances this unique may be used to study new trends to see if they reveal the missing links.
- Model building: This method is similar to network methods but relies more on developing mathematical representations of the environmental phenomena in question. Simulations are good examples of model building techniques.
- Delphi technique: The Delphi technique is the systematic solicitation of experts opinion in varying stages, using feedback to develop new forecasts.