Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts

The Importance of Insurance: Safeguarding and Protecting Individuals and Businesses

Introduction

Insurance plays a crucial role in modern society, providing individuals, businesses, and communities with financial protection and peace of mind. This piece of writing explores the significance of insurance and its various types, highlighting the benefits it offers to policyholders and the broader economy. From mitigating risks to promoting stability and resilience, insurance is an essential tool that enables individuals and businesses to navigate uncertainties and protect their assets.

Human beings have to face different kinds of risks and uncertainties in life or they are exposed to different kinds of risks, such as loss of property by fire, theft, accident, untimely death of persons etc. The risk refers to the state of uncertainty like loss of life or damage and loss of other physical properties causing huge financial loss in future. Such types of loss may blocks or halt the progress of a firm or company. It may happen due to unexpected and uncertain events such as setting of fire, theft, accident, earthquake, robbery etc. All these unexpected events cannot be controlled and eliminated. However, a person can reduce such kind of financial loss resulting from such uncertainties and risks with the help of a kind of cooperative scheme, which is termed as insurance. Insurance is such a cooperative which protects the persons and firms from such a great financial loss.

Insurance is the way of reducing the financial losses arising from a number of unexpected risks and uncertainties. It is the way that provides security to the human and his/ her property against the risks. It only provides the financial compensation against the death of a person or loss and damage of the physical properties. Thus, insurance is a cooperative means of transferring risk to the insurer in consideration of payment of certain periodical amount called premium.

Insurance can be studied from two perspectives i.e. functional view point and legal view point. According to the functional view point, insurance is a cooperative tool to spread the risks over a number of people who are exposed to them and who agree to insure themselves against that risk. However, from a legal perspective, insurance is a contract between two parties where one party promises to pay a certain amount as a premium in exchange for the right to receive financial protection in the event that a person's life is lost or their property is lost or damaged. In conclusion, insurance is a cooperative plan or contract that transfers risks from the insured to the insurer and guarantees the insured's financial security in the event of a covered event, such as a covered person's death or a covered property's loss or damage.

I. The Concept and Purpose of Insurance:

Definition of Insurance

Insurance is a contract between an individual or an entity (the policyholder) and an insurance company, where the insurer agrees to compensate the policyholder for specified risks or losses in exchange for premium payments.

Risk Management

Insurance serves as a fundamental tool for managing risks by transferring the potential financial burdens associated with unforeseen events to the insurance provider.

Peace of Mind

Insurance provides individuals and businesses with a sense of security, knowing that they are financially protected against a wide range of risks and liabilities.

Some of the popular definitions of insurance are given below:

"Insurance is a contract by which a party for a compensation called the premium assumes particular risks of the other party and promises to pay to him or nominee a certain or ascertainable sum of money on a specified contingency." – Edwin W. Peterson
"Insurance is a cooperative device to spend loss caused by a particular risk over a number person who are exposed to it and agree to insure themselves against that risk." – Prof. R. S. Sharma
"Insurance business means life insurance business and non-life insurance business which also refers to the reinsurance." – Insurance Act 2049

Insurance is a contract between two parties in which insurer promises to pay financial compensation to the insured in case of loss of human life or physical properties and insured agrees to pay the premium to the insurer.

II. Types of Insurance


A. Life Insurance

Life insurance policies offer financial protection to the policyholder's beneficiaries in the event of their death, ensuring their loved ones are supported and their outstanding obligations are met.

B. Health Insurance

Health insurance provides coverage for medical expenses, ensuring that individuals can access quality healthcare without significant financial strain.

C. Property Insurance

Property insurance policies protect individuals and businesses against losses or damages to their physical assets, such as homes, buildings, or inventory, due to perils like fire, theft, or natural disasters.

D. Auto Insurance

Auto insurance offers protection against losses and liabilities arising from accidents involving vehicles, providing coverage for damage repairs, medical expenses, and legal costs.

E. Liability Insurance

Liability insurance safeguards individuals and businesses against legal claims and financial obligations resulting from third-party injuries, property damage, or negligence.

F. Business Insurance

Business insurance policies cater to the unique risks faced by businesses, including property damage, liability claims, business interruption, and professional errors or omissions.

III. Functions of Insurance

Insurance performs functions of insurance related to the act of evaluating the risk, minimizing financial risk and using remedial measures to protect from possible losses. Some of the primary functions of insurance are described as follows:

a) Providing certainty

There are a large number of risks and uncertainties. The date of occurring risk and its exact amount of loss be predicted. Insurance provides certainty against such uncertainties that may cause huge loss of the property and even life. It promises to compensate the loss of insured property against the amount paid in the form of premium. Thus, to provide certainty against risk and uncertainty is one of the primary functions of insurance.

b) Distributing risk

Insurance is a cooperative device of distributing risk among a large number of persons who are exposed to it. It works under the cooperative concept and collects the small amount of premium for distribution of such risk.

c) Providing protection

Individuals and their properties are surrounded by greater risk and uncertainties. They may be suffered from losses due to such risks and uncertainties. Insurance cannot eliminate the risk but can reduce by way of cooperative device. It only provides protection against such risk and uncertainties. It promises to pay a certain amount in case of happening of event i.e. death of a person or loss of property. Thus, it takes the responsibility of providing protection against the death of insured or loss of properties.

Secondary Functions
Insurance performs the following secondary functions:

a) Formation of capital

Insurance company collects the huge amount as premium from the large number of insured persons and forms huge capital. The whole amount collected as premium may not be compensated at a time. The remaining amount in fund can be mobilized in the productive and profitable sectors. Thus, the insurance company invests the unused capital as short-term, mid-term and long-term investment in various industrial and commercial sectors. As a result, it supports for the economic development of the country.

b) Promoting trade

Insurance plays an important role in promotion of internal and external trade. While carrying goods from one place to another, there are a large number of risks like accident, theft, robbery etc. If the trader has to bear huge loss due to such unexpected events, he/she will be discouraged to carry out the trading activities. The insurance helps to minimize all risks of financial losses assuring the trader to provide financial compensation in consideration of insurance premium. Thus, the insurance facilitates the trader to perform the trading activities conveniently.

c) Maintaining financial stability

Insurance helps to create favorable environment in financial and business world ensuring to compensate the financial losses that may arise due to unexpected events. It avails capital, provides assurance and financial protection to the entrepreneurs. It also provides financial compensation to the insured person or enterprise in case of financial loss due to any unexpected event. All these things help to maintain financial stability in the country.

d) Increasing business efficiency

Insurance provides security against the financial losses due to risks and uncertainties. The people who have insured their life and properties feel secured, active and become free from mental tension. The feeling of security and activeness makes the people more devoted towards their job, profession and business. As a result, they can freely work and get an achievement from the job. Thus, the insurance increases the business efficiency and makes them more enthusiastic.

e) Creating awareness to prevent losses

The insurance cannot avoid whole losses. But, it helps to minimize such losses. It makes the people involved in various research and investigation program. It helps to forecast the future and find out the scientific method for maintaining the risk. Thus, due to insurance, people learn to be secured and protect their physical properties.

f) Providing employment opportunities

Insurance is a kind of business. It requires the different types of human resources to conduct business activities. It provides various employment opportunities to the educated people. Furthermore, it provides a certain amount as financial compensation in case of the event. It helps to perform some productive works in the society. Thus, the insurance helps to create employment opportunities directly and indirectly.

IV. Benefits of Insurance

  • Financial Protection: Insurance safeguards individuals and businesses from catastrophic financial losses, ensuring that they can recover and rebuild in the face of adversity.
  • Risk Mitigation: Insurance enables individuals and businesses to transfer risks to insurance providers, reducing the impact of unforeseen events on their financial stability.
  • Economic Stability: Insurance fosters economic stability by enabling businesses to take calculated risks, secure loans, and attract investments, knowing they have protection against potential losses.
  • Promoting Resilience: Insurance plays a crucial role in helping individuals and communities bounce back from disasters, such as natural calamities or accidents, by providing the necessary financial resources for recovery and reconstruction.
  • Peace of Mind and Well-being: Insurance alleviates anxiety and stress by offering individuals and businesses the confidence to pursue their goals and aspirations without the fear of devastating financial setbacks.

Conclusion:

Insurance serves as a critical component of a well-functioning society, offering financial protection, stability, and resilience to individuals, businesses, and communities. Whether it is safeguarding lives, assets, or livelihoods, insurance plays a vital role in mitigating risks, promoting peace of mind, and ensuring economic well-being. Recognizing the significance of insurance and making informed decisions about coverage can empower individuals and businesses to navigate uncertainties and build a secure future.

Investment Decision under Uncertainty

Uncertainty refers to a situation in which a decision is expected to yield more than one outcome and the probability of none of the possible outcomes is known. Therefore, decisions taken under uncertainty are necessarily subjective. However, analysis have devised some decision rules to impart some objectively to the subjective decisions, provided decision-makers are able to identify the possible ‘states of nature’ and can estimate the outcome of each strategy. Some such important decision rules are discussed below:

1. Wald’s maximum decision criterion

Wald’s maximum decision criterion says that the decision-makers should first specify the worst possible outcome of each strategy and accept a strategy that gives best out of the worst outcomes. It gives a conservative decision rule for risk avoidance. However, this decision rule can be applied by those investors who fall in the category of risk averters. This investment rule can also be applied by firms whose very survival depends on avoiding losses.

2. Minimax regret criterion

Minimax regret criterion is another decision rule under uncertainty. This criterion suggests that the decision-makers should select a strategy that minimizes the maximum regret of a wrong decision. What is regret? “Regret is measured by the difference between the pay-off of a given strategy and the pay-off of the best strategy under the same state of nature. Thus, regret is the opportunity cost of a decision.

3. Hurwicz decision criterion

Hurwicz has suggested another criterion for investment decision under uncertainty. In his opinion, full realization of optimistic pay-off or full realization of most pessimistic pay-off is a rare phenomenon. The actual pay-off of a strategy lies somewhere between the two extreme situations. According to Hurwicz criterion, therefore, the decision-makers need to construct a decision index of most optimistic and most pessimistic pay-offs of each alternative strategy. The decision index is, in fact, a weighted average of maximum possible and minimum possible pay-offs, weight being their subjective probability such that sum of probabilities of maximum (Max) and minimum (Min) pay-offs equals one.

4. Laplace decision criterion

The Laplace criterion uses the Bayesian rule to calculate the expected value of each strategy. As mentioned earlier, Bayesian rule says that where meaningful estimate of probabilities is not available, the outcome of each strategy under each state of nature must be assigned the same probability and that the sum of probabilities of outcome of each strategy must add up to one. For this reason, the Laplace criterion is also called the ‘Bayesian criterion’. By assuming equal probability for all events, the environment of ‘uncertainty’ is converted into an environment of ‘risk’.

Once this decision rule is accepted, then decision-makers can apply the decision criteria that are applied under the condition of risk. The most common method used for the purpose is to calculate the ‘expected value’ as defined in the case of pay-off matrix in section. Once expected value of each strategy is worked out, then the strategy with the highest expected value is selected.

This decision rule avoids the problem that arises due to subjectivity in assuming a probability of pay-off. This criterion is, therefore, regarded as the criterion of rationality because it is free from a decision-makers attitude towards risk.

To sum up, uncertainty is an important factor in investment decisions but there is no unique method of dealing with uncertainty. There are several ways of making investment decisions under the condition of uncertainty. None of the methods as described above lead to a flawless decision. However, they do add some degree of certainty to decision-making. The choice of method depends on the availability of necessary data and reliability of a method under different conditions.

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Utility and Risk Aversion in Investment Decision

The assumption of risk aversion is basic to many decision models in managerial economics. Because this assumption is too crucial, it is appropriate to examine attitudes toward risk and discuss why risk aversion might hold in general.

1. Possible risk attitudes

In this theory, three possible attitudes towards risk are presented as aversion to risk, indifference to risk, and preference for risk. Risk aversion characteristics individuals who seek to avoid or minimize risk. Risk neutrality characteristics decision makers focus on expected returns and disregard the dispersion returns (risk). Risk seeking characteristics decision makers prefer risk. Given a choice between more risky and less risky investments with identical expected monetary returns, a risk averter select the less risky investment and a risk seeker select the riskier investment. Faced with the same choice, the risk-neutral investor is indifferent between the two investment projects.

Given the importance of attitudes towards risk in economic decision making, it is important to ask what factors are involved in the determination of such attitudes. Managerial economics tends to presume that the majority of economic participants are risk averters, and it makes this presumption on the basis of the principle of diminishing marginal utility of money.

2. Relation between money and its utility

At the heart of risk aversion is the notion of diminishing marginal utility for money. If someone with no money receives $5000, it can satisfy his or her most immediate needs. If such a person then receives a second $5000, it will obviously be useful, but the second $5000 is not quite so necessary at the first $5000. Thus, the value or utility of the second or marginal $5000 is less than the utility of the first $5000 and so on. Consequently, diminishing marginal utility of money implies that the marginal utility of money income or wealth diminishes for additional increments of money.

Now, if this principle holds generally then it has an important implication for attitudes towards a 50/50 risk of gaining or losing a given monetary amount. This is that the extra benefit from making an equally likely gain is less than the loss of benefit from enduring an equality likely loss. For this reason, the diminishing marginal utility of money tends to make for risk aversion.

3. Adjusting the valuation model for risk

To the extent that diminishing marginal utility leads directly to risk aversion, then this risk aversion can be reflected in the basic valuation model used to determine the worth of a firm. If a managerial decision affects the firm’s risk level, the value of the firm is affected. Two primary methods are used to adjust the basic valuation model to account for decision making under conditions of uncertainty.

Under conditions of risk, the profits shown in the numerator of the valuation model as π equal the expected value of profits during each future period. This expected value is the best available estimate of the amount to be earned during any given period. However, since profits cannot be predicted with absolute precision, some variability is to be anticipated. If the firm must choose between two alternative methods of operation, one with high expected profits and high risk and another with smaller expected profits and lower risks, some technique must be available for making the alternative investments comparable. An appropriate ranking and selection of projects is possible only if each respective investment project can be adjusted for considerations of both time value of money and risk.

4. Certainty equivalent adjustment

The certainty equivalent method is an adjustment to the numerator of the basic valuation model to account for risk. Under the certainty equivalent approach, decision makers specify the certain sum that they are comparable to the expected value of a risky investment alternative. The certainty equivalent of an expected risk amount typically differs in monetary terms but not in terms of the amount of utility provided.

5. Risk-adjusted discounts rates

Another way to incorporate risk in managerial decision making is to adjust the discount rate of denominator of the basic valuation model equation (iii). Like certainty equivalent factors, risk-adjusted discount rates are based on the trade off between risk and return for individual investors.

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Measurement of Risk by Probability Distribution

The probability of an event is the chance, or odds, that the event will occur, if all possible events or outcomes are listed, and if a probability of occurrence can be assigned to each event, the listing is called a probability distribution. For example, suppose a sales manager observes that there is a 70% chance that a given customer will place a  specific   order   within   the  next   two
weeks, versus a 30% chance that the customer will not. This situation is described by the probability distribution shown in table.

Each possible outcome is listed in column 1, and the probabilities of each outcome, expressed as decimals and percentages, appear in column 2. Notice that the probabilities sum to 1.0 or 100%, as they must if the probability distribution is to be complete (i.e. represent all possible outcomes). In this very simple example, risk can be read from the probability distribution as the 30% chance of neither the firm nor receiving the order. For most managerial decisions, the relative desirability of alternative events or outcomes is not so easily computed. A more general measure of the relation between risk and the probability distribution is measure of the relation to incorporate risk considerations adequately into the decision-making process. The need for a more general measure of risk can be illustrated by the following example.

Suppose that a firm is able to choose only one of two investment projects, each calling for an outlay of $10,000. Assume also that profits earned from the two projects are related to the general level of economic activity during the coming year, as shown in table. This table is known as a payoff matrix since it illustrates the monetary outcomes associated with each possible state of profits from project B very much more as a result the state of the economy than do those from Project A. In a normal economy, both projects return $5,000 in profit. Should the economy be in a recession next year? Project B will produce nothing, whereas Project A still provides a $ 4,000 profit. If the economy is booming next year, Project B’s profit will increase to $ 12,000, but profit for Project A will increase only moderately to $6,000.

Outcomes and Probabilities for Receiving an Order

                                Event                        Probability of Occurrence
                                 (1)                                        (2)
Receive Order                                                   0.7 = 70%
Do not received order                                        0.3 = 30%
Total                                                                  1.0 = 100%

Project A is clearly more desirable if the economy is in recession, whereas Project B is superior in a boom. In a normal economy, the projects offer the same profit potential, and both are equally desirable. To choose the best project, one needs to know the likelihood of a boom, a recession or normal economic conditions. If such probabilities are available, the expected profits and variability of profits for each project can be determined. These measures make it possible to evaluate each project in terms of anticipated or expected returns, and to measure the risk of such returns in terms of the difference between and expected values.

Payoff Matrix for Project A and B

                                                          Profits
State of the Economy         Project A             Project B
Recession                             4,000                     0
Normal                                 5000                  5,000
Boom                                   6,000                 12,000

The expected value is the anticipated receipts from a given payoff matrix with a specified probability distribution. It is the weighted average receipt when the weights are defined by the appropriate probability distribution.

To continue with the previous example, assume that forecasts based on the current trend in economic indicators suggest a 2-in-10 chance of recession, a 6-in-10 chance of normal economy, and a 2-in-10 chance of a boom. As probabilities, the probability of recession is 0.2, or 20%, the probability of normal economic activity is 0.6 or 60% and the probability of a boom is 0.2, or 20%. These probabilities add up to 1.0 (0.2 + 0.6 + 0.2 = 1.0), or 100%, and thereby from a complete probability distribution, as shown in table.

Calculation of Expected Values

           State of the
Economy
Probability
of this State Occurring
Profit Outcome
if this State Occurs
Expected Profit
Outcomes ($)
           (1)(2)(3)(4) = (2) x (3)
Project ARecession0.24,000800
           Normal0.65,0003,000
           Boom0.26,0001,200
                      1.0Expected Profit A           
Project BRecession0.200
           Normal0.65,0003,000
           Boom0.212,0002,400
                      1.0Expected Profit B           

If each possible outcome is multiplied by its probability of occurrence, and the answers are summed, the weighted average outcomes are obtained. In this calculation, the weights are the probabilities of occurrence, and the weighted average is called the expected value. The above mentioned table illustrates the calculation of expected profits for Project A and B. Each possible profit level in column 3 is multiplied by its probability of occurrence from column 2 to obtain weighted values of the possible profits. Summing column 4 of the table for each project gives a weighted average of profits under various states of the economy. This weighted average is the expected profit from the project.

Risk is a complex concept, and some controversy surrounds attempts to define and measure it. Common risk measures that are satisfactory for most purposes are based on the observation that right probability distributions imply low risk. 

The standard deviation is a popular and useful measure of absolute risk. Absolute risk as measured by the standard deviation is the overall dispersion of possible payoff values. The smaller is the standard deviation, the tighter is the probability distribution and therefore the lever is the risk in absolute terms.

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Risk and Uncertainty in Managerial Decision Making

Risk means a low probability of an expected outcome. From business decision-making point of view, risk refers to a situation in which a business decision is expected to yield more than one outcome and the probability of each outcome is known to the decision-makers or it can be reliably estimated. For example, if a company doubles its advertisement expenditure, there are four probable outcomes such as; 

(i) its sales may more-than-double,
(ii) they may just double,
(iii) increase in sales may be less than double and
(iv) sales do not increase at all.

The company has the knowledge of these probabilities or has estimated the probabilities of the four outcomes on the basis of its past experience as:
(i) more-than double – 20 percent (or 0.2),
(ii) almost double – 40 percent (or 0.4),
(iii) less than double – 50 percent (or 0.5) and
(iv) no increase – 10 percent (or 0.1).

It means that there is 80 percent risk in expecting more than doubling of sales, and 60 percent risk in expecting doubling of sale, and so on.

There are two approaches to estimating probabilities of outcomes of a business decision, viz.
(i) a priori approach, i.e., the approach based on deductive logic or intuition
(ii) posteriori approach, i.e., estimating the probability statistically on the basis of the past data.

In case of a priori probability, we know that when a coin is tossed, the probabilities of ‘head’ or ‘tail’ are 50/50, and when a dice is thrown, each side has 1/6 chance to be on the top. 

The posteriori assumes that the probability of an event in the past will hold in future also. The probability of outcomes of a decision can be estimated statistically by way of ‘standard deviation’ and ‘coefficient of variation’.

Uncertainty refers to a situation in which there is more than one outcome of a business decision and the probability of no outcome is known nor can it be meaningfully estimated. The unpredictability of outcome may be due to lack of reliable market information, inadequate past experience and high volatility of the market conditions. For example, if a Nepalese firm, highly concerned with population burden on the country, invents an irreversible sterility drug, the outcome regarding its success is completely unpredictable. Consider the case of insurance companies. It is possible for them to predict fairly accurately the probability of death rate of insured people, accident rate of cars and other automobiles, rate of buildings catching fire, and so on, but it is not possible to predict the death of a particular insured individual, a particular car meeting an accident or a particular house catching fire, etc.

The long-term investment decisions involve a great deal of uncertainty with unpredictable outcomes. But, in reality, investment decisions involving uncertainty have to be taken on the basis of whatever information can be collected, generated and ‘guesstimated’. For the purpose of decision-making, the uncertainty is classified as:
(a) complete ignorance and
(b) partial ignorance.

In case of complete ignorance, investment decisions are taken by the investor using their own judgment or using any of the rational criteria. What criterion he chooses depends on his attitude towards risk. The investor’s attitude towards risk may be that of:
(i) a risk averter,
(ii) a risk neutral,
(iii) a risk seeker or risk lover.

In simple words, a risk averter avoids investment in high-risk business. A risk-neutral investor takes the best possible decision on the basis of his judgment, understanding of the situation and his past experience. He does his best and leaves the rest to the market. A risk lover is one who goes by the dictum that ‘the higher the risk, the higher the gain’. Unlike other categories of investors, he prefers investment in risky business with high expected gains.

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