Non-statistical methods used to forecast the demand for satellite TV signal decoder

Demand forecasting means predicting demand for a product. The information regarding future demand is essential for planning and scheduling production, purchase of raw materials, acquisition of finance and advertising. In order of accuracy as well as good forecasting, we can use various methods such as survey and statistical methods.

Generally in short term forecasting, we can use survey method and statistical method can be used for long-term forecasting.

As mention above in title, satellite TV signal decoder is a short-term program. To know the peoples intention about the program, we can use survey method. Under survey method, there are various methods, such as:

1. Consumer Survey Method: Direct interview method, complete enumeration method, sample survey method.
2. Opinion Poll Method: Experts opinion method, Delphi method, Market Studies and experiments. In case of forecasting demand for satellite TV signal decoder, we can use sample survey method.

Under this method, only a few potential consumers and users are selected from the relevant market through a sampling method are surveyed. This method of survey may be direct interview or method questionnaire to these sample consumers. On the basis of the information obtained that probable demand may be estimated through the following formula,

DP = HR / HS (H. AD)

Where, DP = Probable demand forecast

H = Census number of households from the relevant market

HS = Number of households for the product

AD = Average expected consumption by the reporting households

This method is simpler, less costly and less time consuming than the comprehensive survey method. The households who plan their future purchases generally use this method to estimate short-term demand from business firms, government departments and agencies, and so on. Business firms, government departments, and such other organization budget their expenditure at least for one year in advance. It is therefore possible for them to supply a fairly reliable estimate of their future purchases. Even the households making annual or periodic budget of their expenditure can provide reliable information about their purchases.

Sample survey method is widely used to forecast demand. However, this method has some limitations similar to those of complete enumeration or exhaustive survey method. The forecast therefore should not attribute reliability to the forecast more than warranted. Besides, sample survey method can be used to verify the demand forecast made by using quantitative or statistical methods. Some authors suggest that this method for forecasting rather than to replace it, this method can be gainfully used where market area is localized.

Sample survey method can be of greater use in forecasting where quantification of variables (e.g. feelings, opinion, expectations etc.) is not possible and where consumer’s behavior is subject to frequent changes. Satellite TV signal decoder forecasting is also a short and non-durable program. In such a case, sample survey method is only the appropriate non-statistical method.

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